Intermarket
SPX/ES structure is the main read, but it rarely moves alone. These are the instruments we check it against, and how each one usually behaves. “Often leads” tends to turn first, “Confirms” should agree with a real move, and “Inverse” usually moves the other way. Open a ticker to see every post that discussed it.
Index and futures
The structure everything else is checked against.
- SPX
S&P 500 index
Cash index; options positioning (GEX) is quoted against it.
3 posts - ES
E-mini S&P 500 futures
Trades nearly 24 hours, so overnight structure shows here first.
3 posts - NQ
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futuresOften leads
Tech-heavy; often leads ES at turns because of mega-cap weight.
3 posts - RTY
E-mini Russell 2000 futuresConfirms
Breadth check; a rally without small caps is a narrow rally.
0 posts
Volatility
Where hedging demand and dealer positioning show up first.
Dollar and FX
Liquidity and risk appetite, often moving opposite equities.
Bonds and rates
Rates set the discount on every multiple in the index.
- TNX
10-year Treasury yieldInverse
Fast rises in yields pressure long-duration growth stocks.
2 posts - TLT
20+ year Treasury ETF
Price of long bonds; watch whether bonds and stocks move together or apart.
0 posts - ZN
10-year Treasury note futures
Futures version of the 10-year; trades alongside ES overnight.
0 posts
Commodities
Growth, inflation and fear, each with its own metal or barrel.
Not financial advice. Educational analysis and opinion only, not a recommendation to trade.Full disclosures